NFL Week 4 of the 2026 season is complete.
The model went 10-6 on its 16 graded Week 4 picks (62.5%).
Season to date through Week 4: 39-25 (60.9%).
Best call of the week
The correct pick whose predicted scoreline landed closest to the real one. The model picked the Los Angeles Rams; predicted Los Angeles Rams 24.8 - Philadelphia Eagles 22.3, final Los Angeles Rams 24 - Philadelphia Eagles 20.
Worst miss of the week
The wrong pick that lost by the most. The model picked the New Orleans Saints; the Atlanta Falcons won 45-24, a 21-point miss. It stays on the record.
All 16 Week 4 picks, graded
- Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns: picked Cleveland Browns, predicted 17.7-21.1, final 24-27 (win).
- Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders: picked Washington Commanders, predicted 22.8-28.5, final 30-13 (loss).
- Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens: picked Baltimore Ravens, predicted 19.3-29.6, final 18-24 (win).
- New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills: picked Buffalo Bills, predicted 20.4-25.9, final 29-26 (loss).
- New York Jets at Chicago Bears: picked New York Jets, predicted 23.2-19.1, final 12-23 (loss).
- Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals: picked Jacksonville Jaguars, predicted 24.5-22.7, final 22-17 (win).
- Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans: picked Dallas Cowboys, predicted 28.0-27.7, final 34-30 (win).
- Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants: picked Arizona Cardinals, predicted 26.3-23.4, final 24-36 (loss).
- Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles: picked Los Angeles Rams, predicted 24.8-22.3, final 24-20 (win).
- Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: picked Tampa Bay Buccaneers, predicted 19.1-20.5, final 17-14 (loss).
- Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings: picked Minnesota Vikings, predicted 15.1-30.3, final 10-15 (win).
- Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders: picked Kansas City Chiefs, predicted 23.5-22.0, final 30-27 (win).
- Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks: picked Seattle Seahawks, predicted 15.8-31.2, final 23-30 (win).
- Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers: picked San Francisco 49ers, predicted 20.2-31.3, final 14-24 (win).
- Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers: picked Carolina Panthers, predicted 24.1-27.4, final 26-32 (win).
- Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints: picked New Orleans Saints, predicted 17.1-24.5, final 45-24 (loss).
Nothing here is restated after the fact: every projection above was posted before kickoff and none of it has been removed. See the Week 4 picks board and the full season record, nothing removed.